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Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction Debra Mayhew Taking into account social

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Taking into account social

and unexpected love

The tempestuous

Katherine Paterson

[but] this girl has heart' – Publishers Weekly starred review‘Memorable and riveting’ - Lovereading

Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction Debra Mayhew Taking into account socialThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an

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